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In a prediction market (like intrade.com) when an event is complete, who pays out?


I'm having trouble understanding how a prediction market functions after an event has occured.

In a prediction market, one buys and sells stock on the basis of the occurence of a future event (like who will become president). The purchase price of a stock is based on the percentile of the event occuring, as determined by the market.

Here's an example: Lets say there's a market on if Obama will become President. Stock are sold at 30. I purchase the stock. Obama gains momentum, and the price increases to 60, as it becomes more likely he will become president. I can sell, or keep the stock. I decidet to keep it.

Obama wins the election. so the price automatically goes to 100 (he won, there's a 100% he won the Presidency).

How do I get my money? no won will buy the stock. Does the prediction market pay me (intrade.com)?

I apologize for my poor grammar.

in the last sentance, I mean "No one" instead of no won.

I dont know for sure but I think they have the same "bets" in Vegas and its a easier to understand.

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