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Will inflation skyrocket in the next year, forcing interest rates high as the first years of the 80ths.?


. Double digits interest rate in 2-3 years ? (like greenspan sees)

. 2-5% inflation in Japan, inflation spill from china ?

. With no M3 data, but MZM at 20% this is no good sign !

. Will we see the Yen/US$ at 80 when inflation peaks ?

. When will the inflation peak ?

. Is US economy policy makers playing the same game as in 1979. (subprime crisis, high petroleum price, low interest rate, fuelling inflation, subprime help measurements....)

With core inflation, no I don't think so. Global economy with many still willing to accept USD, keeping inflation reasonable (I didn't say at low levels, but not souble digit in my mind). tb answer.

I hate to say it, but only time will tell. I don't think we can predict what the interest rates are going to do in any form.

yep! $5.00 a gallon a gas, about $10.00 a gallon of milk. thanks to the bankers and there mortgage mess. the fed should have never lower rates in the first place. they should have raise them. this would have sped up the mortgage crisis and we would get through it faster. now it is going to be a long drag out fight. you will not see a upside in housing for at least 5 to 10 years from now.

Actually, the inflation spilling is from us to China. China has their currency artificially pegged to the US dollar. Therefore, whatever our issues are becomes their's as well. Now, we all thought China had a bottom-less pit of Labor (China thought this too) and so through the 90s we were dumping jobs and businesses over there. This forstalled the inflationary effects here in the US, and pushed them into China, who has now raised their rates 6 times this year and are facing near double-digit inflationary rates.
As for the Greenspan view of inflation, that is actually the proper way to look at inflation. Problem is, housing (which should be considered in the equation) as an inflationary indicator is so subjective to speculators and house-flippers that the prices will climb and flucutate violently...hardly a safe haven of information for the Fed to operate from.

I see inflation to be a large problem in the years to come, but not at the present time. And I certainly do not see it correlating to the Stagflation of the 70s. Reason being is that during the 70s there was this mindset on the relationship between employment and inflation, as a new economic theory out of London advised that all we needed to do was focus our efforts on the one and the other would correct itself. For Europe it was inflation and for the US it was employment. While the model seemed to work, it was rapidly discovered that it only worked in the short-term, and that after a span of a few years the formula unraveled and both sky-rocketed.
Couple that with a reluctant President and Congress, both of whom did not want to adjust spending, and you have an economic meltdown.
I do not foresee this same situation surfacing here. My big concern is naturally that of a recession, but the bigger picture on the economy falls more on US Congress and their spending habits. There is the problem. Once we can control spending and cut down on our debt, the outlook on inflation and the falling dollar will show a dynamic rebound.

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